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PE Sant Jordi vs Andratx Prediction - Sunday, 20 September 2026

Competition: Spanish Tercera División RFEF - Group 11

Date: Sunday, 20 September 2026

Kickoff Time: 18:00 (GMT+8)

Last Updated: 2026-09-20T17:11:01.326Z

AI Match Analysis Summary

Score8 AI predicts Andratx Win (2) for this Spanish Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 clash between PE Sant Jordi and Andratx on Sunday, 20 September 2026. Our ensemble machine learning model assigns a 30% probability to a home win, 28% to a draw, and 42% to an away victory. The expected goals model forecasts 1.1 xG for PE Sant Jordi and 1.4 xG for Andratx, totaling 2.6 expected goals. Confidence level: Low. Analysis based on recent form, historical head-to-head data, team strength ratings, and real-time odds from major bookmakers.

Score8 AI Pre-Match Prediction

Predicted Match Result (1X2)

AI Prediction: Andratx Win (2)

Confidence Level: Low

1X2 Win Probabilities

Home Win (1) - PE Sant Jordi: 30%
Draw (X): 28%
Away Win (2) - Andratx: 42%

Expected Goals (xG)

PE Sant Jordi: 1.15 xG

Andratx: 1.41 xG

Total Expected Goals: 2.56

Model Last Updated: 2026-09-20T08:40:19.731Z

AI Prematch Analysis — Post-Lineup

The market rates Andratx (13th, 1W-1L) as the more probable winner at 42.4% against Sant Jordi's 30.0%, despite Sant Jordi sitting unbeaten in 4th — a gap explained by the model's expected-goals read (away lambda 1.411 vs home lambda 1.149) rather than by league position. The asian handicap at 0.25 is the market worth watching, since the model's own split between the two sides (50.8% home, 49.2% away) is close to a coin flip. Across the seven quoted markets examined, none clear the book's pricing after margin, with edges running from -3.2% to -5.0%.

The headline tension in this match is that Sant Jordi's perfect start (2W-0D-0L, 5 for, 2 against) and home platform (1W-0D-0L at home) sit against a model that still favors the visitors. That's not a contradiction so much as a reflection of small-sample early-season form: with only two matches played apiece, the underlying scoring rates driving the lambda estimates (1.149 home, 1.411 away) carry as much weight as the raw results, and Andratx's single win apparently came with enough attacking output to keep their expected output ahead of Sant Jordi's, even after conceding in their loss. The asian handicap line of 0.25 in Sant Jordi's favor captures this balance reasonably well — the model doesn't see this as clearly one-sided, with both sides landing within a couple of points of the market's own implied probabilities. The over/under picture points the same direction: an expected total of 2.56 sits just above the 2.5 line, but the model leans slightly toward the under (52.8%) over the over (47.2%), while a 52.3% both-teams-to-score probability suggests goals from both ends are plausible without either attack being expected to dominate. The clustering of top scorelines around 1-1, 0-1, 1-2 and 0-0 reinforces that picture — this reads as a match likely to be settled by a fine margin rather than a comfortable spread. On pricing, all seven quoted markets carry negative edge against the single bookmaker's line (margin 12.5%), running from -3.2% up to -5.0%. Because only one book is quoted here, that margin is baked into every side of every paired market, so the fact that both asian handicap sides and both over/under sides sit in negative territory together is structural rather than a signal that the market is uniformly overpriced — it simply means neither side is priced generously enough to clear the vig. The worst-priced market is the away match winner (-5.0%), the largest gap between model (42.4%) and market (47.4%) probability, suggesting the market may be leaning on Andratx's favorite status a bit more than the underlying goal expectations support. All of this is read before team news: with lineups not yet published, none of the above accounts for who actually starts, and given Sant Jordi's early attacking form and Andratx's more mixed underlying numbers, absences on either side could move the expected-goals picture more than anything captured in the current pricing.

Home Win: 30.0%, Draw: 27.6%, Away Win: 42.4%

Expected Goals: 2.6 (Home xG: 1.15, Away xG: 1.41)

Most Likely Score: 1-1

Over 2.5: 47.2%, BTTS: 52.3%

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