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Quintanar del Rey vs Illescas Prediction - Sunday, 20 September 2026

Competition: Spanish Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

Date: Sunday, 20 September 2026

Kickoff Time: 01:00 (GMT+8)

Last Updated: 2026-09-20T16:35:39.999Z

AI Match Analysis Summary

Score8 AI predicts Quintanar del Rey Win (1) for this Spanish Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 clash between Quintanar del Rey and Illescas on Sunday, 20 September 2026. Our ensemble machine learning model assigns a 45% probability to a home win, 29% to a draw, and 26% to an away victory. The expected goals model forecasts 1.3 xG for Quintanar del Rey and 0.9 xG for Illescas, totaling 2.3 expected goals. Confidence level: Medium. Recommended Market: Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw). Analysis based on recent form, historical head-to-head data, team strength ratings, and real-time odds from major bookmakers.

Score8 AI Pre-Match Prediction

Predicted Match Result (1X2)

AI Prediction: Quintanar del Rey Win (1)

Confidence Level: Medium

Recommended Market: Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw)

1X2 Win Probabilities

  • Home Win (1) - Quintanar del Rey: 45%
  • Draw (X): 29%
  • Away Win (2) - Illescas: 26%

Expected Goals (xG)

Quintanar del Rey: 1.33 xG

Illescas: 0.94 xG

Total Expected Goals: 2.26

Model Last Updated: 2026-09-20T02:05:03.114Z

Pre-Match Betting Odds (Bet365)

1X2 Match Result Odds

  • Home Win (Quintanar del Rey): 2.38
  • Draw: 2.88
  • Away Win (Illescas): 2.90

Asian Handicap 0

  • Quintanar del Rey (0): 1.78
  • Illescas (+0): 2.02

Odds Last Updated: 2026-09-20T13:14:38.410Z

Betting Value Analysis

Score8 AI compares model probabilities against market odds to identify value bets. When our AI probability is higher than the implied probability from bookmaker odds, this indicates potential value.

Home Win Edge: AI 45% vs Market 42% implied

Away Win Edge: AI 26% vs Market 34% implied

Disclaimer: Score8.ai provides AI-powered sports analytics for informational purposes only. We are not a betting site and do not accept wagers. Always gamble responsibly.

View our verified track record: Real Bet Results with PDF Verification

AI Prematch Analysis — Pre-Lineup

The model gives Quintanar del Rey the edge at home (45.1% win probability) over Illescas (25.7%), with a 29.2% draw chance, even though Illescas arrives with the better league position and an unbeaten start. The most notable market is the away moneyline, where the model's 25.7% comfortably exceeds the market-implied 22.4% (odds 4.46, edge 3.3%) — the largest single dislocation found across the quotes checked, not evidence of broader value in the match.

Quintanar del Rey's underlying numbers look shaky on the surface: 16th place, one point from two games (0W 1D 1L), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Illescas sit 9th with four points from an unbeaten start (1W 1D 0L) and, notably, have yet to concede — 1 scored, 0 against, with a perfect away record so far. Despite that gap in early-season results, the model's scoring rates (lambda 1.328 for the home side against 0.936 for the away side, total expected goals 2.26) still lean toward Quintanar del Rey producing more of the game's output, which is largely a function of home advantage rather than recent form. That tension between Illescas' clean defensive record and the model's home-scoring lean is exactly why the Asian handicap sits at just -0.25 rather than a fuller line — the market isn't willing to fully back either the home side's underlying rate or the away side's form and defensive record, and it's pricing that ambivalence on both sides of the handicap in a way that leaves neither outcome clearly undervalued. The score distribution reflects the same tightness: 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 and 2-0 dominate the top scorelines, consistent with a low-scoring, closely contested match rather than one team imposing itself. With only two bookmakers quoting this fixture and an 11.5% margin baked in, the market here is thin and wide by nature, which matters for interpreting the edges: of 15 quotes examined, only 2 carry a positive edge (the away moneyline's 3.3% and double chance X2's 1.7%), while 13 are negative, down to -11.2% at the extreme. Because a bookmaker's margin guarantees that the two sides of any given market can't both be favorably priced, these positive readings are localized dislocations in an otherwise unfavorably-priced board, not a sign that the fixture broadly offers value. The handicap itself illustrates this — both the home and away -0.25 legs show essentially the same -2.8% edge, meaning the model sees the line as fairly assessed rather than skewed toward either side. One further caveat carries real weight here: squads for this match have not yet been confirmed, so nothing in this analysis accounts for possible absences on either side, which could meaningfully shift these probabilities once teams are announced.

Home Win: 45.1%, Draw: 29.2%, Away Win: 25.7%

Expected Goals: 2.3 (Home xG: 1.33, Away xG: 0.94)

Most Likely Score: 1-1

Over 2.5: 39.4%, BTTS: 45.3%

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Quintanar del Rey vs Illescas
Spanish Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Sep 20, 2026
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